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Klimapolitik der Schwellenstaaten
Südkorea, Mexiko und Brasilien
AFES-PRESS Studie für das Umweltbundesamt

 [Climate policy of the threshold states
Republic of Korea, Mexico and Brazil
AFES-PRESS Study for the German Environment Office (UBA)]

by Hans Günter Brauch

English Summary

1. This report under contract of the German Environment Office (UBA) focuses on one aspect of North-South environment policy: the climate policy of the three threshold states: Republic of Korea, Mexico and Brazil, three non-Annex I states under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) and Non-Annex B states under the Kyoto Protocol (KP). Three criteria are being used for the assessment: a) contribution to global warming; b) economic status and c) impact of global warming (victim status).

2. The study is organised in eight chapters: chapter 1 introduces into this new policy area, chapter 2 reviews the international context of the debate on enlarging the Annex I states at COP-3 in Kyoto, chapter 3 and 5 analyse the regional context of climate policy for East Asia and Latin America, chapters 4, 6 and 7 offer three extensive case studies on the Republic of Korea, Mexico and Brazil while chapter 8 draws conceptual conclusions.

3. Chapter 1 on national and international climate policy describes the evolution of climate policy since 1988, 92 years after Arrhenius assumed a linkage between burning of fossil fuel and carbon concentration in the atmosphere. It defines the terms of national (domestic and foreign economic) and inter- and transnational climate policy of industrial (Annex I, II), transformation (Annex II) and developing countries (non-Annex I states) and discusses criteria for the adaptation of the list of Annex I states with respect to industrial threshold states.

4. Chapter 2 on climate policy of three Non-Annex I countries offers a survey of the projections of global energy demand and global warming gases. It reviews the controversial negotiations at Kyoto (COP-3) on the inclusion of developing countries into obligations of Annex I states under the FCCC and summarises key results with respect to North-South climate relations. It specifies the three criteria for the assessment of the climate policy behaviour of South Korea, Mexico and Brazil and finally it reviews global projections with respect to population growth, economic and energy growth and increase of global warming gases.

5. Chapter 3 on climate policy of South and East Asia and the Pacific covers the existing energy cooperation among the APEC countries and the development of population and economic growth, energy production and consumption from 1973 to 1992 and offers projections for both indicators until 2010 and beyond for the three regional Annex I countries (Japan, Australia and New Zealand), the East Asian threshold states, the ASEAN countries, the populous nations in South and East Asia and the AOSIS countries.

6. Chapter 4 with the country study on the Republic of Korea reviews the history and the development strategies since 1948, it portrays the cautious position of South Korea in the climate negotiations and the evolution of the significant population (since 1950) and large economic growth (since 1961) and the dramatic increase in energy production and consumption and of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Furthermore it summarises the projections of these indicators until 2010, 2030 or 2050. Until the 1990s economic growth had a clear priority over environment and climate policy initiatives. The case study concludes that South Korea fulfils all criteria to be included - as a new OECD country - into the FCCC as an industrial (Annex I) country and that its increase of global warming gases from 1990 to 2010 should be limited to 30-40%.

7. Chapter 5 on energy policy, forests and climate policy in Latin America introduces into the many regional organisations none of which specifically focuses on climate issues. It reviews the regional population trends since 1950-1995 and the projections until 2050, the development and projections of the growth of the GDP, energy consumption and carbon emissions originating both from the burning of fossil fuels and land use changes by burning of forests.

8. Chapter 6 with the case study on Mexico reviews the history since the revolution, it portrays the active role of Mexico in the climate negotiations and the evolution of the significant population (since 1950), the modest economic growth (since 1980) and the large increase of energy production (oil, gas) and modest growth in consumption and of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Furthermore it summarises the projections of these indicators until 2010, 2030 or 2050. Until the 1990s economic growth had also a clear priority over environment and climate policy initiatives. Based on the National Communication for the UNFCCC it compares the official with scientific assessments of the energy balance and of the impact of climate change for agriculture and industry in the Northern, Central and Southern regions. The case study concludes that Mexico as a new OECD country fulfils the criteria, if compared with the three transformation, new OECD and Annex I countries: Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, to be included into the UNFCCC as an Annex I country and that its permitted increase of global warming gases from 1990 to 2010 should be limited to 100% analogue to the EU climate “bubble” of March 1997.

9. Chapter 7 with the case study on Brazil reviews the history since the second World War, it portrays the very active role of Brazil in the climate negotiations and the evolution of the very large population (since 1950), of the moderate economic growth (since 1980) and the modest increase of fossil energy consumption and of carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) due to the exploitation of the abundant hydropower potential for electricity generation and the substitution of alcohol from sugar cane for petrol. Furthermore, it summarises the projections of these indicators until 2010, 2030 or 2050. Until recently economic growth had also a clear priority over environment and climate policy initiatives. Since the Rio Earth Summit public awareness and concern of the environmental problems of the Amazon and of the regional impact of climate change on the semi-arid Northeast and on the coastal areas grew rapidly. However, only if the emissions from land use changes are included and compared with most transformation countries, Brazil fulfils the criteria to be included into the FCCC as an Annex I country. Its permitted increase of global warming gases from 1990 to 2010 should be limited to about 150%.

10. Chapter 8 with the results and conceptual conclusions summarises the comparisons of the three threshold states with both Annex I countries that have a lower BIP per capita than most transformation countries in Eastern Europe and other non-Annex I countries of the high and upper medium income category with respect to their contribution to climate change and ability to cope with the costs of mitigation activities. The study recommends that all present and future members of the OECD, EU and NAFTA should become Annex I countries and that a OECD and NAFTA “bubble” should be developed that permits limits to the differentiated increase of climate change gases according to the status of economic development. While only threshold and upper middle income states that accept voluntary restraints should be awarded grants from GEF and CDM, the low and low middle income and especially the populous developing countries should be supported without preconditions (unconditional addionality). The study suggests a better co-ordination of German foreign and economic policy with respect to climate change and the promotion of energy savings, energy efficiency enhancement and commercialisation of renewables. Such a policy should aim simultaneously at the reduction of carbon emissions and at the creation of new and additional jobs at home.

Last updated 15.8.1998 by the webmaster

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